“With Q1 FY26 results underway, Indian investors and share holders are closely tracking potential opportunities amid global uncertainty, tensions in the Middle East, Japan’s inflation data and the recent Indo-Pak ceasefire.”

Hello, curious investors! Let’s find out what number talks about the future of Indian Markets.

Gold is the favourite asset to women in India and recent past performance proved them a ‘wise investor’ globally. However, past 3 months data showing that the precious metal is range bound and appears stable. Report by Goldman Sach on 15th May predicted the rate to go beyond our normal expectations to 1.3 lakh INR as the year concludes.

Gold stability showing some confidence in the global economy but what lies ahead is uncertain in the present scenario. Numbers reported by RIL appears promising as they posted the Net profit of 36% YoY & 19% QoQ and Net debt/LTM EBITDA improved by 8%. However, Oil to Chemical (O-2-C) segment contributes ~51% of revenue to RIL has reported a loss of (1.5%) YoY and (6%) QoQ. The data also suggest that brent crude oil prices have come down as
OPEC+ has allowed higher supply in the market and Russian oil is flowing in the international markets despite UN sanctions that lead to the increased inventory and stable demand pushed the prices to go down towards the stable figure.

Brent Crude Oil prices have been declining, while gold has remained stable over the past few months – both appearing as positive signals for investors. However, the key question remains: how long will these conditions last?

With India VIX inching higher, there’s a visible sense of nervousness among market participants – especially as we approach the hard tariff deadline on August 1. Investors will be anxious to know that the tariffs will trigger the volatility or gives some relieve to them.

As of July 21, some major companies announced their Q1 performance, Nifty is trading below 10 & 20 EMA showing short term bearish sentiments and short sellers are enjoying the opportunity and on the other side bulls expecting the upcoming results may trigger nifty upwards and create some opportunities to make something positive out of it.

As major private sector banks like HDFC, ICICI and AXIS along with some other banks released their Q1 results of FY26 showing growth on their income statements and Balance sheets, increased loan book and interest collections. However, an important observation lies with the data of provisions as it has jumped dramatically by 94% Y0Y in AXIS Bank, 455% YoY in HDFC Bank and 36% YoY on ICICI Bank’s financial statements. This sharp rise suggest
that banks are bracing for potential future uncertainties, despite reporting the bad loan ratios being stable to marginally increased in the retail segment. Most of these banks also highlighted well-diversified loan portfolio and reported the 90% or more corporate loan is highly rated and 50% or more loan book is comprised of the retail segment including agriculture, personal, vehicle, credit card, etc. This raises a critical question: If bad loans are nearly stable, loan portfolios are well-diversified and corporate loans are highly rated then who are these increased provisions being made for and why now? The increasing global uncertainty, fluctuation in tariff rates and surge in bad loans in the future probably motivated the banks to hang on to the increased provisions.

The recent inflation data of India showing the lowest inflation rate reaching a six-year low of 4.6% in 2024-25 and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also predicted the further decline to 4.1% in FY26. After the recent rate cut (Repo rate) of 50 basis points from 6% to 5.5% on 6th June 2025. Now the question is, will RBI follow the same trend and do further rate cuts based on recent inflation data reported recently? Next Monetary policy review meeting is expected in the early August 2025, just after the hard tariff deadline.

Indian markets are expecting some major events in the coming future which are expected to impact the returns for the investors. DIIs are net buyers in the equity segment primarily due to increase in mutual fund cash flow. However, FIIs are showing mixed activity in July turning net buyers/sellers on a single trading day. Investors should be cautious with their investment portfolio in the coming months as multiple events are anticipated which may or may not go in the positive direction for the Indian Markets.

“Investors are advised to stay Informed, Diversified, and Disciplined. Stay focused on your long-term goals, avoid panic during volatility, and continue your journey with mutual fund SIP’s and active portfolio management with all suggestions from your financial advisor.”

Wishing you strong convictions and healthy Wealth management……

Sources: –
https://www.rbi.org.in/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/p2sfq7bH/
https://www.hdfcbank.com/
https://www.icicibank.com/
https://www.axisbank.com/
https://www.nseindia.com/
https://www.thehindu.com/
https://www.ril.com/https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-gold-prices-are-forecast-to-rise-to-new-record-highs